Küresel ısınma gerçek mi yoksa yalan mı? Karbon emisyonu iklimi gerçekten etkiliyor mu?
Son yüz elli yılda atmosferimizdeki karbondioksit miktarı yüzde elli arttı. Küresel ortalama sıcaklık ise son yüz yılda 1.1 santigrat derece yükseldi. Bu rakam size küçük gelebilir, ama tarih öncesi çağlarda bu kadar ısınma on bin yıl içinde gerçekleşirken, şimdi sadece yüz yılda yaşandı. Bugün konuşacağımız konu, sadece bilimin bize ne söylediği değil. Aynı zamanda gerçeğin nasıl manipüle edildiği, kimler tarafından gizlendiği ve bunun kimin ekmeğine yağ sürdüğünü göreceğiz.
Bu videoda önce iklim değişikliğini inkar edenlerin argümanlarını bilimsel verilerle çürüteceğiz. Sonra sera gazı salınımının gerçek nedenlerini göreceğiz. Ve en önemlisi, fosil yakıt şirketlerinin “karbon ayak izi” gibi kavramları uydurarak size kendinizi nasıl suçlu hissettirdiğini, sorumluluğu üzerlerinden nasıl attıklarını ortaya koyacağız.
KAYNAKÇA
IPCC ve Bilimsel Konsensüs:
- IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) – Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ - Cook, J., et al. (2013). “Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature.” Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024024.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 - Oreskes, N. (2004). “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” Science, 306(5702), 1686.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1103618 - Even Americans highly concerned about climate change dramatically underestimate the scientific consensus
https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/
Güneş Aktivitesi ve İklim:
- NASA – Solar Influence on Climate
https://web.archive.org/web/20220609015343/https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/
- Lockwood, M. (2008). “Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature.” Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 464(2094), 1387-1404.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2007.0347
İklim Modelleri:
- Hausfather, Z., et al. (2020). “Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections.” Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085378 - NASA – How reliable are climate models?
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3149/how-reliable-are-climate-models/
Volkanik Emisyonlar:
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) – Volcanic Gases and Climate Change Overview
https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/volcanoes-can-affect-climate - Gerlach, T. (2011). “Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide.” Eos, 92(24), 201-202.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011EO240001
BP ve Karbon Ayak İzi:
- Mark, J., & Kaufman, M. (2021). “The carbon footprint sham.” Mashable.
https://mashable.com/feature/carbon-footprint-pr-campaign-sham
- Solnit, R. (2021). Big oil coined ‘carbon footprints’ to blame us for their greed. The Guardian
- Supran, G., & Oreskes, N. (2017). “Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977–2014).” Environmental Research Letters, 12(8), 084019.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f - BP – Carbon Footprint Calculator Archive (2004-2019)
https://web.archive.org/web/20190701000000*/https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/sustainability/climate-change/carbon-footprint.html - MIT News – Leaving our mark (Evsiz birey karbon ayak izi)
https://news.mit.edu/2008/footprint-tt0416
Carbon Majors ve Kurumsal Emisyonlar:
- CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017
https://cdn.cdp.net/cdp-production/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf - Griffin, P. (2017). “The Carbon Majors Database: CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017.” Climate Accountability Institute.
https://climateaccountability.org/carbonmajors.html
ExxonMobil ve İklim Bilgisi:
- Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S., & Oreskes, N. (2023). “Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections.” Science, 379(6628), eabk0063.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063 - InsideClimate News – Exxon: The Road Not Taken (Pulitzer ödüllü araştırma)
https://insideclimatenews.org/project/exxon-the-road-not-taken/ - Union of Concerned Scientists – Climate Deception Dossiers (Endişeli Bilim İnsanları Birliği – İklim Aldatmacası Dosyaları)
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/climate-deception-dossiers
Karbon Ofset ve Greenwashing:
- Greenfield, P., & Muller-Hansen, F. (2023). “Revealed: more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest certifier are worthless.” The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe - Calel, R., et al. (2021). “Do carbon offsets offset carbon?” Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 371.
https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/do-carbon-offsets-offset-carbon/
- EuroNews – Shell, BP, Exxon: Seized emails reveal ‘deceptive’ climate tactics and greenwashing
https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/09/23/shell-bp-exxon-seized-emails-reveal-deceptive-climate-tactics-and-greenwashing
Fosil Yakıt Lobiciliği:
- Brulle, R. J. (2013). “Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding and the creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations.” Climatic Change, 122(4), 681-694.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1018-7 - InfluenceMap – Big Oil’s Real Agenda on Climate Change (2022 Report)
https://influencemap.org/report/Big-Oil-s-Real-Agenda-on-Climate-Change-14d73373c3c2d2d6eb19edb4f5bc9887
- Farrell, J. (2016). Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 113 (1) 92-97.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4711825
Fosil Yakıt Sübvansiyonları:
- International Energy Agency (IEA) – Fossil Fuel Subsidies Database
https://www.iea.org/topics/fossil-fuel-subsidies - International Monetary Fund (IMF) – Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies (2021)
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004
Yenilenebilir Enerji:
- International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) – Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022
https://www.irena.org/publications/2023/Aug/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2022 - Lazard – Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (2023)
https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost-of-energyplus/
Kurumsal Hesap Verebilirlik ve Davalar:
- Sabin Center for Climate Change Law – Climate Change Litigation Databases
https://climatecasechart.com/
Ek Genel Kaynaklar:
- NASA Global Climate Change – Vital Signs of the Planet
https://climate.nasa.gov/ - NOAA Climate.gov – Climate Change: Global Temperature
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature - Skeptical Science – Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism
https://skepticalscience.com/